|
IHF President, Jim Murphy
gives an objective assessment of the year ahead
With current uncertainty surrounding
Iraq, the spiralling costs of doing business in Ireland and the
jittery state of the world economy, 2003 looks set to present
major challenges for the hotel and tourism industry in Ireland.
Despite the down beat outlook,
there has been some positive news on the US market front. Access
looks set to be improved in the coming year with the opening
up of new direct transatlantic routes by Aer Lingus to Baltimore
and US Airways to Philadelphia. These announcements follow on
from the recent ASTA Fodor survey which saw Ireland rank for
the first time in the Top 10 destinations among winter US travellers.
Even with all of the external
factors influencing the push and pull on the growth of our industry,
the biggest concern for hoteliers right now is home grown. The
high cost of doing business in Ireland means that the already
tight margins in hotels and guesthouses look set to be eroded
in 2003.
Ever increasing insurance premiums
are still being demanded from Irish businesses. The imposition
of an additional 1% VAT on hotel and restaurant services is an
incredulous move when we now compare our 13.5% rate with Spain
on 7%, France on 5.5% and Portugal 5%. Our rate of inflation,
at 5%, is more than double that of our European competitors.
When the appreciation in value
of the Euro by some 15% against the Dollar in the last year alone
is added to the equation, the enormity of our competitive challenge
is evident. Irish hotels and guesthouses have benefited from
growth in excess of 25% in the Irish market over the last two
years. It will prove difficult to maintain this level of activity
in the face of low economic growth and increasing domestic inflation.
The possibility of a wage increase
of 7% spread over eighteen months will make major inroads into
further eroding margins in the hospitality business.
|
Additionally,
with insurance premiums rising three times the rate of inflation,
and energy and local authority charges well in excess of the
rate of inflation, 2003 looks certain to be a period of severe
retrenchment in which there is limited funding available for
reinvestment and upgrading.
The reduction from 15% to 4%
in the annual rate of Capital Allowances for hotel development
announced in the recent budget will bring to an end the level
of new hotel developments and will seriously curtail expansion
and upgrading of existing hotels. The elimination of the Capital
Gains Tax Rollover Relief creates a major barrier to hotel and
guesthouse businesses who might be rationalising their operations
by selling some of their properties and reinvesting the proceeds
in extending or upgrading their remaining premises. While we
appreciate efforts being taken by the Government to close tax
shelters, we believe that these measures have eliminated the
incentive to invest in an industry that has a very low level
or return on capital employed.
The outlook for 2003 is indeed
challenging. As a small open economy on the periphery of Europe,
international uncertainty coupled with a Government policy of
belt-tightening measures, places even more pressure
on hotels and guesthouses to focus on efficiencies and cost reductions.
Targeting and securing international
visitors to come to Ireland has never been more important or
indeed critical for the stability not only for the hotel and
guesthouse sector, but for the tourism sector as a whole. The
commitment of companies like Aer Lingus and US Airways in providing
new access routes to Ireland, and the procurement by our Minister
Mr. John ODonoghue of an extra 5m for front-line
overseas marketing, does provide a ray of light for the industry
amongst a darkening horizon.
Pictured is The Spire -
Dublins newest focal point
|