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From a tourism and hospitality
point of view, the current year is the most challenging in the
last decade. The recent Quarterly Economic Commentary from the
Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) predicts that the
Irish economy will contract by 0.4% in 2008, with a modest GNP
upturn of 1.9% to follow in 2009. This is a major turnaround
from a GNP growth of 4.5% in 2007 and 6.4% in 2006. The reason
for this economic recession is not primarily a global economic
decline or increases in such commodities as energy and food.
It is primarily a result of a very weak performance in domestic
consumer demand and a large decline in construction activity.
Domestic consumer demand is expected to rise by just 1% in volume
in 2008, compared with 5.4% in 2007 and 6% in 2006. The 2009
consumer demand prediction is for a modest volume growth of 2%.
Pressures on Consumer
Spend
As domestic customers make up
over 61% of roomnights in hotels nationwide and over 70% in hotels
outside of the Dublin area, this substantial slowdown in the
buoyancy of domestic consumer demand creates major challenges
for the hospitality sector. The strengthening of the Euro against
Sterling and the US Dollar and the knockon effects of the record
high oil prices set against a background of tightening of credit
availability and concern about the value of pension funds, have
all undermined the confidence of potential customers from the
US and Britain. These factors, together with major increases
in the cost of food supplies and threatened increases of up to
30% in fuel costs point toward 2008 and 2009 being very challenging
years.
In recent days, there have been
comparisons made with the early 1980s, when there was negative
economic growth in the country. However, Ireland today is in
a much stronger position to deal with the challenges than it
was a quarter of a century ago. The national workforce is double
what it then was. In 1985, there were 1.098 million jobs in the
economy; in 2008, there are 2.116 million. In 1985, the unemployment
level was 220,000; in 2008, it is 136,000. In 1985, the exchequer
borrowing requirement was 12.6% of GDP; now, it is under 5%.
Irelands hotels and guesthouses
are now of an exceptional standard and among the most modern
in Western Europe;
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and we now have an unprecedented
level of accessibility provided by air and sea carriers throughout
the island.
Measured Cost Cuts Required
Many of the issues facing us
are outside of our control, such as the strength of the Euro
in international markets, the high price of oil and, in the domestic
economy, the slowdown in private housing construction. This year,
the absence of strong domestic demand will probably result in
increased pressure on hotel prices. This places an onus on our
managers to reduce costs in areas over which they have some control.
Care must always be taken to ensure that a reduction in costs
is not at the expense of customer satisfaction - that would ultimately
jeopardise the long term business proposition. Wage costs in
hotels are now 4142% of turnover. This level of wage costs
is not sustainable, and every effort must be made to reduce this
figure through efficiencies and increased productivity, even
in the face of a difficult economic climate. In tandem, both
the industry and Government will have to sustain a strong marketing
effort to generate business in the tougher international market.
The IHF maintains that, due to
the inability of hotels to recover through price increases or
additional sales, the cost of legally binding wage increases
awarded in 2007 and 2008, it is now fundamental that there is
a pay pause until at least the end of the 2009 season. While
discussions are presently ongoing among the social partners on
national wage rates, the Irish Hotels Federation believes that
labour intensive sectors, such as the hospitality sector, cannot
afford any further wage increases until such time as there is
a solid sustainable cost basis for the industry and a substantial
increase in domestic demand. National understandings and social
partnership have served the country well over the last two decades.
However, the approach to national pay bargaining must take fully
into account the competitive challenges in sectors of high labour
intensity, such as hospitality where the net profit margins are
low.
A prudent short to medium term
strategy based on improving our competitiveness, curtailing all
costs over which we have a control and maintaining our level
of customer satisfaction will result in us emerging as a stronger,
more sustainable industry.
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